Is China now micro-managing Nepal politics?
Ambassador Hou Yanqi’s mediation ahead of crucial party meeting may have prevented split in NCP
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It is true that Oli was cornered, and had to wriggle out of the predicament he had got himself into. But political analysts say hectic behind-the-scenes meetings between Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi and senior leaders last week played a significant role.
“We are seeing a new Chinese move towards micro-management of Nepali politics to further its overall foreign policy goals,” says Nepal’s former ambassador to India Lokraj Baral. “It is reminiscent of the role New Delhi used to play till a few years ago.”
At the first party secretariat meeting on 28 April, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Bamdev Gautam pointedly asked Oli to step down. Twenty members of the party standing committee asked for an emergency meeting accusing Oli of trying to go it alone in the party and government.
Oli dropped a bombshell at that meeting by announcing that Gautam was to be his heir apparent, and got the former UML stalwart to defect from the Dahal faction. It looked like the NCP was headed for a nasty split.
But by the time the secretariat met on 1 May, everything had been smoothed over. Oli stepped back, did some self-criticism, allowed Dahal to conduct party affairs, and assured Gautam of a seat in Parliament.
It has now been revealed that after meeting President Bidya Bhandari on 1 May, Oli pulled Dahal aside before the party meeting and got him to agree on the compromise. Soon after, at the secretariat meeting, Dahal called for party unity, another staunch Oli critic Madhav Kumar Nepal gave the prime minister the benefit of doubt, and Oli got a commitment to serve out his full five-year term.
The seating arrangement of the 1 May secretariat meeting compared to the one on 28 April indicated the structural changes agreed in the deal. While Oli sat at the head table with the red cloth previously, in the second meeting he shared the spot with Dahal.
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Most analysts agree that there was important Chinese mediation to prevent the NCP from splitting, which could have lead to the dissolution of Parliament and a general election.
Although Ambassador Hou’s back-to-back meetings with President Bhandari, Oli, Dahal and Nepal last week were officially said to have been about discussing China’s role in the coronavirus response, the timing of the one-on-ones just a day before the crucial Friday meeting was significant.
President Xi Jinping himself called President Bhandari earlier in the week, although the content of that conversation has not been revealed.
However, not everyone agrees that the Chinese ambassador played a role in bringing the NCP factions together. They say Oli was so isolated within he party that the only way he could stay on as prime minister was to strike a deal with his party rivals.
Says Nepal’s former ambassador to China Tanka Karki: “At a time the world is dealing with a pandemic, I do not think it is the priority for China, or any other country, to meddle in Nepal’s internal politics.”
Baral does not agree. He says ambassadors do make courtesy calls on government officials, and that is part of their job. But he adds that the slew of meetings with factions of the ruling party at a time when the power struggle was reaching a climax was not normal.
The day of the ambassador’s meetings on 30 April was also when the report of the task force set up to look into the US-funded Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) issued its report, concluding that the Compact was a part of America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and suggested amending it. Many see the MCC as a counter to China’s own Belt Road Initiative (BRI) of which Nepal is also a signatory.
The MCC had also divided the party, with Prime Minister Oli’s loyalists including Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada and Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali backing it, while the Dahal faction opposed it.
A senior NCP central committee member admitted that Ambassador Hou’s main message to everyone she met last week was to heal the rift within the party. “It is logical for the public to assume that the Chinese were putting some pressure on the party leadership, but the ambassador was not telling us what to do. She was just encouraging unity, and that is not tantamount to interference,” said the source on condition of anonymity.
Even so, the unusual increase in Chinese diplomatic activity in Kathmandu does show that geopolitical tensions globally and the region are manifesting themselves in Nepal as well.
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